China and the Royal Society

[Plume, Andrew (ELS-OXF)]

Dear Loet,

 

While I am sure readers of SIGMETRICS welcome this methodological
discussion on extrapolating trends, as an analyst for Elsevier on the
Royal Society report I would like to correct a misunderstanding in your
post about the data used therein.  The publication and citation data
used throughout "Knowledge, Networks and Nations" are from Scopus and
NOT just Elsevier journals as your post suggests.  This is stated
explicitly in footnote 155 (pg. 43) to Figure 1.6 you reproduced:
"Analysis by Elsevier based on data from Scopus. This indicates a simple
linear projection of the data." 

 

This is also made clear in the methodology section of the report (pg.
12): "Publication data are derived from Scopus, the world's largest
abstract and citation database of peer-reviewed literature. Scopus
contains over 41 million records across 18,000 journals and covers
regional as well as international literature. Publication outputs in
this report are defined as articles, reviews and conference papers
published in these journals. Where we consider overall totals of
publications, these include outputs in all disciplines."

 

The report is also very clear on how this projection should be
interpreted (pp. 43-44): "In terms of publications, the landscape is set
to change even more dramatically if current trends continue, as can be
seen in Figure 1.6. China has already overtaken the UK as the second
leading producer of research publications, but some time before 2020 it
is expected to surpass the USA. Projections vary, but a simple linear
interpretation of Elsevier's publishing data suggests that this could
take place as early as 2013. Of course, in practice, this will not
follow a linear progression (we do not expect that the USA will decrease
their share of global publications to nothing in the next 50 years), but
the potential for China to match US output in terms of sheer numbers in
the near to medium term is clear."

 

Different methodologies can obviously yield very different results: in
your own manuscript Figure 5 (pg. 27; which you reproduced below) gives
a very different picture from Figure 6 (pg. 32), which is noted as "more
useful" and that shows China surpassing the US in article share in 2015.

 

A comprehensive, global report of the type of "Knowledge, Networks and
Nations" is not trivial undertaking, and the data presented in it were
analysed in depth over a period of almost 18 months prior to its final
publication. For this reason, the final data point presented is current
to 2008 only. It is not (yet) appropriate to use 2010 data for the
calculation of article shares (as you have done in your follow-up
message), since the data are not yet finished and may give false
impressions.

 

In Research Trends (www.researchtrends.com; Editor-in-Chief: Henk Moed),
next week we will publish a fresh analysis using Scopus data up to and
including 2009 reaffirming the findings in "Knowledge, Networks and
Nations". The feature also draws on data from the 2010 NSF "Science and
Engineering Indicators" report to show that - based on latest available
data - the capacity-building (i.e. in manpower) that China has been
focused on in recent years is showing no let-up, suggesting that at
least this underlying driver of publication output will remain.

 

Best wishes,

Andrew

 

Dr Andrew Plume |Associate Director - Scientometrics & Market Analysis
|Research & Academic Relations Department|Elsevier |The Boulevard
|Langford Lane |Kidlington |Oxford |OX5 1GB |UK |phone +44 (0)1865
843835 |mobile:+44 (0)7795970766 |fax: +44 (0)1865 843982
|a.plume at elsevier.com <mailto:a.plume at elsevier.com> 

 


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