Daim TU, Rueda G, Martin H, Gerdsri P. "Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis " Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73(8):981-1012 October 2006.

[Eugene Garfield]

E-mail Addresses: tugrul at etm.pdx.edu 

Title: Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent 
analysis 

Author(s): Daim TU (Daim, Tugrul U.), Rueda G (Rueda, Guillenno), Martin H 
(Martin, Hilary), Gerdsri P (Gerdsri, Pisek) 

Source: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 73 (8): 981-1012 OCT 
2006 

Document Type: Article Language: English 
Cited References: 57      Times Cited: 0  
      
Abstract: 
It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no 
historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and 
patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the 
forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of 
bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting 
tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System 
dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the 
technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel 
cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these 
three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate 
tools to forecast emerging technologies. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights 
reserved. 

Addresses: Daim TU (reprint author), Portland State Univ, Maseeh Coll Engn 
& Comp Sci, Dept Engn & Technol Management, POB 751, Portland, OR 97207 USA
Portland State Univ, Maseeh Coll Engn & Comp Sci, Dept Engn & Technol 
Management, Portland, OR 97207 USA

E-mail Addresses: tugrul at etm.pdx.edu 
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-
1710 USA 
Subject Category: BUSINESS; PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT 
IDS Number: 089ES 

ISSN: 0040-1625 

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