Huber JC "A new model that generates Lotka's Law" JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 53 (3): 209-219 FEB 1 2002

[Eugene Garfield]

John C. Huber : jchuber at inventionandinnovation.org


Title     A new model that generates Lotka's Law
Author    Huber JC
Journal   JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION SCIENCE AND
          TECHNOLOGY  53 (3): 209-219 FEB 1 2002

Document type: Article
Language: English
Cited References: 48
Times Cited: 0


Abstract:
In this paper, we develop a new model for a process that generates Lotka's
Law. We show that four relatively mild assumptions create a process that
fits five different informetric distributions: rate of production, career
duration, randomness, and Poisson distribution overtime, as well as Lotka's
Law. By simulation, we obtain good fits to three empirical samples that
exhibit the extreme range of the observed parameters. The overall error is
7% or less. An advantage of this model is that the parameters can be linked
to observable human factors. That is, the model is not merely descriptive,
but also provides insight into the causes of differences between samples.
Furthermore, the differences can be tested with powerful statistical tools.

KeyWords Plus:
SUCCESS-BREEDS-SUCCESS, INFORMETRIC DISTRIBUTIONS, CUMULATIVE ADVANTAGE,
SCIENTIFIC
PRODUCTIVITY, INVENTIVE PRODUCTIVITY, STATISTICS, RANDOMNESS, CREATIVITY,
PUBLICATION,
EXCEEDANCES

Addresses:
Huber JC, Inst Invent & Innovat, 500 E Anderson Ln,Suite 238-X, Austin, TX
78752 USA
Inst Invent & Innovat, Austin, TX 78752 USA

Publisher:
JOHN WILEY & SONS INC, NEW YORK

IDS Number:
516TZ

ISSN:
1532-2882

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 ALLISON PD            AM SOCIOL REV                 39       596      1974
 ALLISON PD            SOC STUD SCI                  10       163      1980
 BIRR K                PIONEERING IND RES S                            1957
 BOOKSTEIN A           J AM SOC INFORM SCI           48         2      1997
 BOOKSTEIN A           J AM SOC INFORM SCI           41       376      1990
 BOORSTEIN DJ          AM DEMOCRATIC EXPERI                            1973
 BOWSWELL MT           ENCY STAT SCI                  7        25      1986
 BRODERICK JT          WR WHITNEY PIONEER I                            1945
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 ENGELHARDT M          EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBU                    73      1995
 EPSTEIN R             COGNITION CREATIVITY                            1993
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 FOX MF                SOC STUD SCI                  13       285      1983
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 HUBER JC              COMMUN STAT-SIMUL C           29      1165      2000
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 HUBER JC              J AM SOC INFORM SCI           49       471      1998
 HUBER JC              J CREATIVE BEHAV              34       203      2000
 HUBER JC              J CREATIVE BEHAV              32        58      1998
 HUBER JC              SCIENTOMETRICS                50       323      2001
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 HUBER JC              SCIENTOMETRICS                45        33      1999
 JOHNSON NL            CONTINUOUS UNIVARIAT           1                1994
 JOHNSON NL            UNIVARIATE DISCRETE                             1993
 JOHNSTEINER V         MIND CULTURE ACTIVIT           2         2      1995
 LOTKA AJ              J WASHINGTON ACADEMY          16       317      1926
 NARIN F               RES POLICY                    24       507      1995
 PAO ML                J AM SOC INFORM SCI           37        26      1986
 PICKANDS J            ANN STAT                       3       119      1975
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 SICHEL HS             J AM SOC INFORM SCI           36       314      1985
 SIMON HA              BIOMETRIKA                    42       425      1955
 TAGUE J               J AM SOC INFORM SCI           32       280      1981
 WAGNERDOBLER R        J DOC                         51        28      1995
 WAGNERDOBLER R        SCIENTOMETRICS                46       213      1999
 WAGNERDOBLER R        SCIENTOMETRICS                32       123      1995

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Eugene Garfield, Ph.D. E-mail: mailto:garfield at codex.cis.upenn.edu Web site:
http://www.eugenegarfield.org
Telephone: (215)243-2205 Fax: (215)387-1266
Past President, American Society for Information Science & Technology
http://www.asis.org
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http://www.isinet.com  3501 Market St , Philadelphia, PA 19104-3389,
Pres.,Ed.-in-Chief, The Scientist, http://www.the-scientist.com 3535 Market
St , Philadelphia, PA 19104-3385,
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