[Sigia-l] It's started

[Nancy Broden]

On Jun 4, 2007, at 2:40 PM, Ziya Oz wrote:

>
>> Apple's weakness in this endeavor will be in its lack of control  
>> over the
>> iPhone's service,
>
> Interesting. You have assumed a 'weakness' before the fact. Why's  
> that?

The vast majority of mobile phone users don't understand the  
difference between a hardware or software issue and one related to  
their carrier's service (or lack thereof). If the experience breaks  
during purchase or download over the air, what's at fault - the  
phone, the carrier or some third party? Most people don't know but  
blame the device as frequently as the carrier or the content  
provider. AT&T's poor service to some subscribers may be ascribed to  
the iPhone, hence the assumed weakness.

>
>> Will Apple/AT&T shift the paradigm? Will the world be different  
>> after June 29?
>> Maybe, maybe not.
>
> I think the iPhone has already permanently changed the mobile  
> landscape,
> before selling its first unit. You really think, after seeing these
> commercials for months and all the rest of the marketing, people  
> will still
> look at their cellphones the same way ever again? Just the way  
> every single
> mp3 player after the iPod had to be compared to it? The UX age in  
> mobiles
> starts June 29.

Mmmm. I have owned every incarnation of the iPod since its first  
release and currently have all 3 models (video, Nano and Shuffle  
clip). Being thus attuned I cannot help but check out anyone that I  
see who carries something other than an iPod. They are out there. Not  
just the contrarians who buy the Zune but those who choose not to  
upgrade their Walkman CD players (I haven't seen anyone with a  
portable cassette player out there, but that may be because tapes are  
now hard to find).

Some people, AKA all of us who've been salivating over the iPhone  
since the rumors started to fly, will look at their phones  
differently after June 29. Most people will still want their phone to  
place and receive phone calls, fit comfortably in their pocket or bag  
and be reasonably affordable. Don't get me wrong - the iPhone will  
start a change that will work its way through to the mainstream, but  
that revolution won't happen overnight.

Don't forget, Apple will consider the iPhone a success if it sells 1  
million units by the end of the year - about 1% of the US market -  
which they should easily meet if not exceed. I am not certain their  
expectation is that the iPhone will capture the kind of market share  
the iPod has. I'm sure they wouldn't object if it did though... :-)

Nancy Broden
nancy.broden at gmail.com