[Sigmetrics] Chinese versus US article output?

Thu Oct 1 11:17:12 EDT 2015

There must be some kind of inertia we would want to account for in projections like these. Is there enough "conference capacity" to allow the Chinese conference paper output to actually double from 500K to 1M in the 6 years between 2014-2020? Is the infrastructure to support such growth (in research dollars, research space, conference space, # of researchers, # of days in a year) truly in existence? Granted, these are merely simple projections, but we should probably acknowledge that these growth trends may not be sustainable in reality. Or am I off base? I suppose this is related to the caveats you mention (more sophisticated regression models, stability intervals).

I am anecdotally reminded of the popular news stories about China's empty cities and unused infrastructure: tales of inertia flattening out initially meteoric growth rates. The supposed connection is surely anchored in my own cultural bias, but I am reminded nonetheless.

Christopher Weeg

christopher.weeg at thomsonreuters.com
+1 215 823 1861

Thomson Reuters
thomsonreuters.com
scientific.thomsonreuters.com

From: SIGMETRICS [mailto:sigmetrics-bounces at asis.org] On Behalf Of Grégoire Côté
Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2015 9:52 AM
To: 'SIGMETRICS at mail.asis.org'
Subject: Re: [Sigmetrics] Chinese versus US article output?

The conference papers are very important for China.
Using the same database, Scopus, but this time including the conference papers we obtain a totally different picture.

[cid:image001.png at 01D0FC37.C84B18F0]

Figure 10    Trends in the number of papers in the from Europe, U.S. and China in Scopus and forecast until 2020

Note:                  Fractional counting of papers. Arts & Humanities are not included in the analysis.

Source:              Calculated by Science-Metrix from Scopus
We could use more sophisticated regression models and stability intervals, but whether China crossed the U.S. in 2013 or 2014 is not so important. The difference in growth rates is unambiguous and should probably get more attention.

Grégoire Côté
Vice-President, Bibliometrics | Vice-président, bibliométrie
Science-Metrix| T. 1.514.495.6505 x.115|gregoire.cote at science-metrix.com<mailto:gregoire.cote at science-metrix.com>

From: SIGMETRICS [mailto:sigmetrics-bounces at asis.org] On Behalf Of Bosman, J.M. (Jeroen)
Sent: September-28-15 12:28 PM
To: 'SIGMETRICS at mail.asis.org'
Subject: Re: [Sigmetrics] Chinese versus US article output?

This is a simple count by Scopus limited to articles and reviews. It includes all papers with at least one author from the USA or China. So yes, still growing, also relatively. But no, no full catch up yet.

What interests me is why the catch up moment would be important. Is that merely symbolic, or something else?

year

USA

China

China as % of USA

2015

357612

242061

68%

2014

588479

352062

60%

2013

614184

322672

53%

2012

615353

276773

45%

2011

597977

247078

41%

2010

576215

223825

39%

2009

549322

211592

39%

2008

513175

189200

37%

2007

501885

169882

34%

2006

503899

156254

31%

2005

483530

132297

27%

2004

432862

90287

21%

2003

390198

59400

15%

2002

348260

50084

14%

2001

329304

53080

16%

2000

333300

41556

12%

total

7735555

2818103

36%

Best,
Jeroen

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-----Original Message-----
From: SIGMETRICS [mailto:sigmetrics-bounces at asis.org] On Behalf Of David Wojick
Sent: maandag 28 september 2015 16:40
To: sigmetrics at mail.asis.org
Subject: [Sigmetrics] Chinese versus US article output?

How does the present Chinese journal article output compare to the US? I recall discussions here some time ago about the Chinese output catching up with the US. Has it done so? Is it still growing?

David

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