World Shares of Publications of the USA, EU-27, and China Compared and Predicated using the New Interface of the Web-of-Science versus Scopus
loet at LEYDESDORFF.NET
Tue Oct 11 02:09:53 EDT 2011
World Shares of Publications of the USA, EU-27, and China
Compared and Predicated using the New Interface of the Web-of-Science versus
The new interface of the Web of Science (of Thomson Reuters) enables users
to retrieve sets larger than 100,000 documents in a single search. This
makes it possible to compare publication trends for China, the USA, EU-27,
and a number of smaller countries. China no longer grew exponentially during
the 2000s, but linearly. Contrary to previous predictions on the basis of
exponential growth or Scopus data, the cross-over of the lines for China and
the USA is postponed to the next decade (after 2020) according to this data.
These long extrapolations, however, should be used only as indicators and
not as predictions. Along with the dynamics in the publication trends, one
also has to take into account the dynamics of the databases used for the
At http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1802 .
Professor, University of Amsterdam
Amsterdam School of Communications Research (ASCoR)
Kloveniersburgwal 48, 1012 CX Amsterdam.
Tel. +31-20-525 6598; fax: +31-842239111
<mailto:loet at leydesdorff.net> loet at leydesdorff.net ;
Visiting Professor, <http://www.istic.ac.cn/Eng/brief_en.html> ISTIC,
Beijing; Honorary Fellow, <http://www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/> SPRU, University
** apologies for cross-postings
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