Danell, R. 2011. Can the Quality of Scientific Work Be Predicted Using Information on the Author's Track Record?. JASIST. 62 (1): 50-60

[Eugene Garfield]

Danell, R. 2011. Can the Quality of Scientific Work Be Predicted Using 
Information on the Author's Track Record?. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN 
SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 62 (1): 50-60..

Author Full Name(s): Danell, Rickard
Language: English
Document Type: Article

KeyWords Plus: CUMULATIVE ADVANTAGE; BIBLIOMETRIC INDICATORS; 
SCIENCE; PRODUCTIVITY; INEQUALITY

Abstract: Many countries are moving towards research policies that emphasize 
excellence; consequently; they develop evaluation systems to identify 
universities, research groups, and researchers that can be said to be 
"excellent." Such active research policy strategies, in which evaluations are 
used to concentrate resources, are based on an unsubstantiated assumption 
that researchers' track records are indicative of their future research 
performance. In this study, information on authors' track records (previous 
publication volume and previous citation rate) is used to predict the impact of 
their articles. The study concludes that, to a certain degree, the impact of 
scientific work can be predicted using information on how often an author's 
previous publications have been cited. The relationship between past 
performance and the citation rate of articles is strongest at the high end of the 
citation distribution. The implications of these results are discussed in the 
context of a cumulative advantage process.

Addresses: Umea Univ, Dept Sociol, S-90187 Umea, Sweden

Reprint Address: Danell, R, Umea Univ, Dept Sociol, S-90187 Umea, Sweden.
E-mail Address: rickard.danell at soc.umu.se
ISSN: 1532-2882
DOI: 10.1002/asi.21454
fulltext: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asi.21454/full