Arbesman, S; Laughlin, G. 2010. A Scientometric Prediction of the Discovery of the First Potentially Habitable Planet with a Mass Similar to Earth. PLOS ONE 5 (10): art. no.-e13061.

[Eugene Garfield]

Arbesman, S; Laughlin, G. 2010. A Scientometric Prediction of the Discovery of 
the First Potentially Habitable Planet with a Mass Similar to Earth. PLOS ONE 5 
(10): art. no.-e13061.

Author Full Name(s): Arbesman, Samuel; Laughlin, Gregory
Language: English
Document Type: Article

Abstract: Background: The search for a habitable extrasolar planet has long 
interested scientists, but only recently have the tools become available to 
search for such planets. In the past decades, the number of known extrasolar 
planets has ballooned into the hundreds, and with it, the expectation that the 
discovery of the first Earth-like extrasolar planet is not far off.
Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we develop a novel metric of habitability 
for discovered planets and use this to arrive at a prediction for when the first 
habitable planet will be discovered. Using a bootstrap analysis of currently 
discovered exoplanets, we predict the discovery of the first Earth-like planet to 
be announced in the first half of 2011, with the likeliest date being early May 
2011.
Conclusions/Significance: Our predictions, using only the properties of 
previously discovered exoplanets, accord well with external estimates for the 
discovery of the first potentially habitable extrasolar planet and highlight the 
the usefulness of predictive scientometric techniques to understand the pace 
of scientific discovery in many fields.

Addresses: [Arbesman, Samuel] Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Dept Hlth Care Policy, 
Boston, MA 02115 USA; [Arbesman, Samuel] Harvard Univ, Inst Quantitat 
Social Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; [Laughlin, Gregory] Univ Calif Santa 
Cruz, Dept Astron & Astrophys, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA

Reprint Address: Arbesman, S, Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Dept Hlth Care Policy, 
Boston, MA 02115 USA.

E-mail Address: arbesman at hcp.med.harvard.edu
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0013061
fulltext: http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0013061