Weisz, G; Olszynko-Gryn, J. 2010. The Theory of Epidemiologic Transition: the Origins of a Citation Classic. JOURNAL OF THE HISTORY OF MEDICINE AND ALLIED SCIENCES 65 (3): 287-32

[Eugene Garfield]

Weisz, G; Olszynko-Gryn, J. 2010. The Theory of Epidemiologic Transition: the 
Origins of a Citation Classic. JOURNAL OF THE HISTORY OF MEDICINE AND 
ALLIED SCIENCES 65 (3): 287-326.

Author Full Name(s): Weisz, George; Olszynko-Gryn, Jesse
Language: English
Document Type: Article

Author Keywords: epidemiologic transition; demographic transition; population 
control; family planning; World Health Organization; public health
KeyWords Plus: WORLD-HEALTH-ORGANIZATION; MILBANK MEMORIAL FUND; 
PUBLIC-HEALTH; POPULATION-CHANGE; UNITED-STATES; DEMOGRAPHIC-
TRANSITION; TUBAL OCCLUSION; POLICY; NAVAJO; FERTILITY

Abstract: In 1971 Abdel R. Omran published his classic paper on the theory of 
epidemiologic transition. By the mid-1990s, it had become something of a 
citation classic and was understood as a theoretical statement about the shift 
from infectious to chronic diseases that supposedly accompanies 
modernization. However, Omran himself was not directly concerned with the 
rise of chronic disease; his theory was in fact closely tied to efforts to 
accelerate fertility decline through health-oriented population control programs. 
This article uses Omran's extensive published writings as well as primary and 
secondary sources on population and family planning to place Omran's career in 
context and reinterpret his theory. We find that "epidemiologic transition" was 
part of a broader effort to reorient American and international health 
institutions towards the pervasive population control agenda of the 1960s and 
1970s. The theory was integral to the WHO's then controversial efforts to align 
family planning with health services, as well as to Omran's unsuccessful 
attempt to create a new sub-discipline of "population epidemiology." However, 
Omran's theory failed to displace demographic transition theory as the guiding 
framework for population control. It was mostly overlooked until the early 
1990s, when it belatedly became associated with the rise of chronic disease.

Addresses: [Weisz, George] McGill Univ, Montreal, PQ H3X 3R3, Canada; 
[Olszynko-Gryn, Jesse] Univ Cambridge, Dept Hist & Philosophy Sci, Cambridge 
CB2 3RH, England

Reprint Address: Weisz, G, McGill Univ, 3647 Peel St, Montreal, PQ H3X 3R3, 
Canada.

E-mail Address: george.weisz at mcgill.ca; jo312 at cam.ac.uk
ISSN: 0022-5045
DOI: 10.1093/jhmas/jrp058
Fulltext: http://jhmas.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/65/3/287