Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields

[David E. Wojick]

Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields

Scientometrics, Vol. 75, No. 3 (2008) 495-518
DOI: 10.1007/s11192-007-1888-4

http://web.mit.edu/dikaiser/www/BKKCW.PopModels.pdf

Abstract: We analyze the temporal evolution of emerging fields within 
several scientific disciplines in terms of numbers of authors and 
publications. From bibliographic searches we construct databases of 
authors, papers, and their dates of publication. We show that the 
temporal development of each field, while different in detail, is 
well described by population contagion models, suitably adapted from 
epidemiology to reflect the dynamics of scientific interaction. 
Dynamical parameters are estimated and discussed to reflect 
fundamental characteristics of the field, such as time of 
apprenticeship and recruitment rate. We also show that fields are 
characterized by simple scaling laws relating numbers of new 
publications to new authors, with exponents that reflect increasing 
or decreasing returns in scientific productivity.

LUIS M. A. BETTENCOURT, a,f
DAVID I. KAISER, b
JASLEEN KAUR, a,c
CARLOS CASTILLO-CHÁVEZ, d
DAVID E. WOJICK, e

a Theoretical Division, T-7 MS B284, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 
Los Alamos (USA)
b Center for Theoretical Physics, Laboratory for Nuclear Science, 
Department of Physics, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge (USA)
c School of Informatics, Indiana University, Bloomington (USA)
d Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arizona State University, 
Tempe (USA)
e Office of Scientific and Technical Information, US Department of 
Energy, Oak Ridge (USA)
f Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe NM 87501 (USA)

Basically we are looking at the spread of scientific language via the 
mathematics of the spread of disease. Additional results are 
available here:
http://www.osti.gov/innovation/research/ including exploring ways to 
speed up the diffusion of science.

Cheers,
David



-- 

"David E. Wojick, Ph.D., P.E." <WojickD at osti.gov>
Senior Consultant -- The DOE Science Accelerator
http://www.scienceaccelerator.gov/
http://www.osti.gov/innovation/scienceaccelerator.pdf
http://www.osti.gov/innovation/
A strategic initiative of the Office of Scientific and Technical 
Information, US Department of Energy

(540) 858-3136
391 Flickertail Lane, Star Tannery, VA 22654 USA
http://www.bydesign.com/powervision/resume.html provides my bio and 
client list.
http://www.bydesign.com/powervision/Mathematics_Philosophy_Science/ 
presents some of my own research on information structure and 
dynamics.

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