Lariviere, V; Archambault, E; Gingras, Y. Long-term patterns in the aging of the scientific literature, 1900-2004 (Article, English) PROCEEDINGS OF ISSI 2007: 11TH INTL. CONF. OF THE ISSI, VOLS I AND II. 2007. p.449-456

[Eugene Garfield]

Email address: lariviere.vincent at uqam.ca

Author(s): Lariviere, V (Lariviere, Vincent); Archambault, E (Archambault, 
Eric); Gingras, Y (Gingras, Yves) 
Title: Long-term patterns in the aging of the scientific literature, 1900-
2004 

Editor(s): TorresSalinas, D; Moed, HF
 
Source: PROCEEDINGS OF ISSI 2007: 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE 
INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR SCIENTOMETRICS AND INFORMETRICS, VOLS I AND II 
449-456, 2007 

Language: English 

Document Type: Article 

Conference Title: 11th International Conference of the International-
Society-for-Scientrometrics-and-Informetrics 

Conference Date: JUN 25-27, 2007 

Conference Location: Madrid, SPAIN 

Conference Sponsors: Int Soc Scientrometr & Informetr, CSIC, Minist Educ & 
Ciencia, FECYT, Comunidad Madrid, Eugene Garfield Fdn, Thomson Sci, 
Elsevier, Journal Informetr, Scopus, Ayuntamiento Madrid, Sci Metrix, Univ 
Carlos III Madrid 

Author Keywords: aging; half-life; obsolescence; price index; 
diasynchronous analysis; scientific publications. 

KeyWords Plus: OBSOLESCENCE; PUBLICATION; TIME 

Abstract: Despite a very large number of studies on the aging and 
obsolescence of scientific literature, no study has yet measured, over a 
very long time period, the changes in the rates at which scientific 
literature becomes obsolete. This paper aims at studying the evolution of 
the aging phenomenon and, in particular, how citation half-lives are 
changing over more than 100 years of scientific activity. It shows that 
the average and median age of cited literature has undergone several 
changes over the period. Specifically, the two World Wars had the effect 
of raising the average and median age of the cited literature 
significantly. Moreover, and contrary to a widely-held belief, the age of 
cited material has risen continuously since the mid-60s. Among the 
possible explanations for this counter-intuitive phenomenon, the most 
probable is the levelling off of the growth of scientific literature 
related to the steady-state dynamics of modern science that follows its 
exponential growth. 

Addresses: Univ Quebec, CIRST, OST, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8 Canada. 

Publisher Name: INT SOC SCIENTOMETRICS & INFORMETRICS-ISSI 
Publisher Address: KATHOLIEKE UNIV LEUVEN, FACULTEIT E T E W, DEKENSTRAAT 
2, LEUVEN, B-3000, BELGIUM 

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