Mingers, J (Mingers, J.) Exploring the dynamics of journal citations: Modelling with s-curves JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY, 59 (8): 1013-1025 AUG 2008

[Eugene Garfield]

E-mail Address: j.mingers at kent.ac.uk

Author(s): Mingers, J (Mingers, J.) 

Title: Exploring the dynamics of journal citations: Modelling with s-
curves 

Source: JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY, 59 (8): 1013-1025 AUG 
2008 

Language: English 

Document Type: Article 

Author Keywords: journal citations; management science journals; RAE; s-
curve 

Keywords Plus: BUSINESS SCHOOLS; SLEEPING BEAUTIES; IMPACT; MANAGEMENT; 
SCIENCE; METHODOLOGIES; OBSOLESCENCE; POPULATION; BEHAVIOR; RANKING 

Abstract: This paper reports on an exploratory analysis of the behaviour 
of citations for management science papers over a 14-year period. 
Citations often display s-curve type behaviour: beginning slowly, rising 
in response to previous citations, and then declining as the material 
becomes obsolete. Within the context of citation research such functions 
are known as obsolescence functions. The paper addresses three specific 
questions: (i) can collections of papers from the same journal all be 
modelled using the same obsolescence function? (ii) Can we identify 
specific patterns of behaviour such as 'sleeping beauties' or 'shooting 
stars'? (iii) Can we predict the number of future citations from the 
pattern of behaviour in the first few years? Over 600 papers published in 
six leading management science journals are analysed using a variety of s-
curves. 

Addresses: Univ Kent, Kent Business Sch, Canterbury CT2 7NZ, Kent, England 

Reprint Address: Mingers, J, Univ Kent, Kent Business Sch, Canterbury CT2 
7NZ, Kent, England. 

E-mail Address: j.mingers at kent.ac.uk 

Cited Reference Count: 41 

Times Cited: 0 

Publisher: PALGRAVE MACMILLAN LTD
 
Publisher Address: BRUNEL RD BLDG, HOUNDMILLS, BASINGSTOKE RG21 6XS, 
HANTS, ENGLAND 

ISSN: 0160-5682 

DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602428 

29-char Source Abbrev.: J OPER RES SOC 

ISO Source Abbrev.: J. Oper. Res. Soc. 

Source Item Page Count: 13 

Subject Category: Management; Operations Research & Management Science 

ISI Document Delivery No.: 324WV 

*DFES
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