Adams J. "Early citation counts correlate with accumulated impact " SCIENTOMETRICS 63 (3): 567-581 JUN 2005

[Eugene Garfield]

E-mail Addresses: jonathan.adams at evidence.co.uk

Title: Early citation counts correlate with accumulated impact

Author(s): Adams J

Source: SCIENTOMETRICS 63 (3): 567-581 JUN 2005

Document Type: Article   Language: English
Cited References: 9

Abstract:
The present paper addresses the objective of developing forward indicators
of research performance using bibliometric information on the UK science
base.

Most research indicators rely primarily on historical time series relating
to inputs to, activity within and outputs from the research system. Policy
makers wish to be able to monitor changing research profiles in a more
timely fashion, the better to determine where new investment is having the
greatest effect. Initial (e.g. 12 months from publication) citation counts
might be useful as a forward indicator of the long-term (e.g. 10 years from
publication) quality of research publications, but - although there is
literature on citation-time functions - no study to evaluate this
specifically has been carried out by Thomson ISI or any other analysts.

Here, I describe the outcomes of a preliminary study to explore these
citation relationships, drawing on the UK National Citation Report held by
Evidence Ltd under licence from Thomson ISI for OST policy use. Annual
citation counts typically peak at around the third year after publication.
I show that there is a statistically highly significant correlation between
initial (years 1-2) and later (years 3-10) citations in six research
categories across the life and physical sciences. The relationship holds
over a wide range of initial citation counts. Papers that attract more than
a definable but field dependent threshold of citations in the initial
period after publication are usually among the top 1% (the most highly
cited papers) for their field and year. Some papers may take off slowly but
can later join the high impact group.

It is important to recognise that the statistical relationship is
applicable to groups of publications. The citation profiles of individual
articles may be quite different. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to
conclude that leading indicators of research excellence could be developed.
This initial study should now be extended across a wider range fields to
test the initial outcomes: earlier papers suggest the model holds in
economics. Additional statistical tests should be applied to explore and
model the relationship between initial, later and total citation counts and
thus to create a general tool for policy application.

Addresses: Adams J (reprint author), Evidence Ltd, 103 Clarendon Rd, Leeds,
W Yorkshire LS2 9DF England
Evidence Ltd, Leeds, W Yorkshire LS2 9DF England

E-mail Addresses: jonathan.adams at evidence.co.uk

Publisher: SPRINGER, VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
IDS Number: 924UH

Cited References:
*OST, 2004, PSA TARG METR UK RES.
GLANZEL W, 1995, J INFORM SCI, V21, P37.
GLANZEL W, 1997, SCIENTOMETRICS, V40, P481.
GLANZEL W, 2004, SCIENTOMETRICS, V59, P63.
KING DA, 2004, NATURE, V430, P311.
OROMANER M, 1983, RES HIGH EDUC, V19, P351.
PRICE DJD, 1965, SCIENCE, V149, P510.
SMALL H, 2004, SCIENTOMETRICS, V60, P305.
VLACHY J, 1985, SCIENTOMETRICS, V7, P505.
ISSN: 0138-9130