Burrell QL. "Predicting future citation behavior" JASIST 54(5):372-378 March 2003.

[Eugene Garfield]

Quentin L. Burrell : q.burrell at ibs.ac.im


Title   Predicting future citation behavior
Author  Burrell QL
Journal JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION
        SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 54 (5): 372-378 MAR 2003

 Document type: Article   Language: English
 Cited References: 24     Times Cited: 0


Abstract:
In this article we further develop the theory for a stochastic model for the
citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future
citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. More precisely, we
investigate the conditional distribution -and its mean -of the number of
citations to a paper after time t, given the number of citations it has
received up to time t. In an important parametric case it is shown that the
expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current
number, this being interpretable as an example of a success-breeds-success
phenomenon.

KeyWords Plus:
LIBRARY CIRCULATION MODEL, SUCCESS-BREEDS-SUCCESS, STOCHASTIC-MODEL, MARKOV

Addresses:
Burrell QL, Isle Man Int Business Sch, Nunnery,Old Castletown Rd, Douglas
IM2 1QB, Man, England
Isle Man Int Business Sch, Douglas IM2 1QB, Man, England

Publisher:
JOHN WILEY & SONS INC, HOBOKEN

IDS Number:
649ZR

ISSN:
1532-2882



 Cited Author            Cited Work                Volume      Page   Year

 BEHESHTI J            J AM SOC INFORM SCI           35       259      1984
 BURRELL QL            INFORMETRICS 87 88 S                    43      1988
 BURRELL QL            J AM SOC INFORM SCI           41       164      1990
 BURRELL QL            J DOC                         42       114      1986
 BURRELL QL            J DOC                         41       100      1985
 BURRELL QL            J ROYAL STAT SOC A           154       439      1982
 BURRELL QL            LIB SCI                       27       237      1990
 BURRELL QL            SCIENTOMETRICS                53       309      2002
 BURRELL QL            SCIENTOMETRICS                52         3      2001
 CANE VR               B I MATH                      15       183      1972
 CANE VR               J APPL PROBAB                 14       475      1977
 GLANZEL W             INFORM PROCESS MANAG          31        69      1995
 GLANZEL W             INFORMETRICS 89 90                     139      1990
 GLANZEL W             SCIENTOMETRICS                40       481      1997
 GLANZEL W             SCIENTOMETRICS                30        49      1994
 GRIMMETT GR           PROBABILITY RANDOM P                            1982
 HUBER JC              J AM SOC INFORM SCI           49       471      1998
 MORSE PM              LIB EFFECTIVENESS SY                            1968
 PARZEN E              STOCHASTIC PROCESSES                            1962
 PRICE DD              J ASIS                        27       293      1976
 SICHEL HS             J AM SOC INFORM SCI           36       314      1985
 TAGUE J               J AM SOC INFORM SCI           32       280      1981
 TAGUE J               J DOC                         43       212      1987
 TUCKWELL HC           ELEMENTARY APPL PROB                            1995