Chambers FM, Brain SA "Paradigm shifts in late-Holocene climatology?" HOLOCENE 12 (2): 239-249 2002
Eugene Garfield
garfield at CODEX.CIS.UPENN.EDU
Thu Jun 20 10:42:56 EDT 2002
Frank Chambers : fchambers at glos.ac.uk
TITLE Paradigm shifts in late-Holocene climatology?
AUTHOR Chambers FM, Brain SA
JOURNAL HOLOCENE 12 (2): 239-249 2002
Document type: Review Language: English
Cited References: 112 Times Cited: 0
Abstract:
The climatic consequences of major increases in the concentration of
atmospheric carbon dioxide were calculated over 100 years ago, but only
during the last two decades have the effects of human-induced increases in
various atmospheric gas concentrations become a concern of a wide range of
scientists. The near-century delay between the propounding of the theory and
the widespread recognition of the consequences for climate of continuing
human activities implies a recent shift in either the perspectives or in the
interests of researchers, Here we use citation indices to discern a major
shift in the focus of research into climatic change. Scientific
findings in the 1970s and early 1980s are identified as a trigger to the
development of wider scientific concern over human-induced climatic
war-ming, while the period from 1988 to 1991 at first sight appears to
represent a major paradigm shift. However, it is suggested here that an
inferred change in scientific emphasis was caused primarily by a combination
of ( 1) new evidence from ocean and ice cores. particularly concerning the
relationship between past atmospheric gas concentrations and climatic
change: (2) the availability and application of new tools, notably a new
generation of General Circulation Models (GCMs): 13) attribution
of human causation for other environmental problems; (4) a changing science
research agenda. driven by political and funding considerations; and (5) the
contemporary recording of apparently increased 'global' temperatures, which
reversed a previously recorded cooling trend. We caution that the
pre-eminence and longevity of the 'global warming' thesis is vulnerable
either to meteorological data that do not fit with model scenarios, or to
the rise or resurrection of other notions on the primary forcing factors in
climatic change. To obtain a clear perspective (in late-Holocene climatic
change, it will be necessary to evaluate palaeoclimate data that derive from
a wide range of complementary sources - sedimentological. biological,
archaeological and documentary and to compare the magnitude, rate and
frequency of past climatic changes implied in those data with recorded
twentieth-century 'global' changes and projected twenty-first-century
scenarios.
Author Keywords:
climatic change, global warming, general circulation model (GCM), greenhouse
effect, paradigm shift, Holocene
KeyWords Plus:
GLOBAL CLOUD COVERAGE, SOLAR-CYCLE LENGTH, COSMIC-RAY FLUX, CARBON-DIOXIDE,
SURFACE-TEMPERATURE,
CLIMATIC-CHANGE, MISSING LINK, ICE CORE, RECORD, VARIABILITY
Addresses:
Chambers FM, Univ Gloucestershire, GEMRU, Ctr Environm Change & Quaternary
Res, Francis Close Hall,Swindon Rd, Cheltenham GL50 4AZ, Glos, England
Univ Gloucestershire, GEMRU, Ctr Environm Change & Quaternary Res,
Cheltenham GL50 4AZ, Glos, England
Publisher:
ARNOLD, HODDER HEADLINE PLC, LONDON
IDS Number:
529PN
ISSN:
0959-6836
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