[Sigia-l] Salt in Sugar?

[Will Parker]

On Jan 3, 2007, at 11:14 AM, Ziya Oz wrote:

> But this projects aims to pretty much redefine low-end PC hardware
> configuration AND a brand-new, unconventional operating system AND  
> a new set
> of base-functionality online apps AND a new business model/pricing  
> structure
> AND a new distribution scheme AND in virgin territories AND for 100  
> million
> new users AND mostly children...all at the same time.
<snip>
> [H]ere comes Suga': the world's largest geek experiment on live
> children.

Please see OLPCNews.com [http://www.olpcnews.com/implementation/plan/ 
implementation_miracle.html].

Nicholas Negroponte, OLPC project head, appears to be determined to  
push aside ANY evaluation process that would impede getting the  
laptops to the children. I can see the reasoning behind that, but I  
disagree with it.

Here's a quote from Negroponte regarding a suggestion that a pilot  
project might help recipient countries integrate the laptops into  
their national educational curricula.

> "... But the rest of your presentation was actually very  
> inappropriate for this group [by focusing on the need for objective  
> metrics.] Because in fact they do need some magic. They do need  
> some miracles.
> And they do need to do things which isn't futzing around and moving  
> deck chairs. And they can spend the next five years planning. But  
> that's not what they should do.
>
> They have to take action. They have to take big action. To do a  
> pilot project is ridiculous!"
Remember that these computers will in almost every case become the de  
facto PRIMARY computer architecture for the recipient countries.  
Let's look at Botswana as an example:

http://devdata.worldbank.org/idg/IDGProfile.asp? 
CCODE=BWA&CNAME=Botswana&SelectedCountry=BWA

It looks like there were about 41 computers per thousand people in  
2002, so lets call it 45/1000 today. Botswana has about 1.8 million  
people, so that's 81 kilocomputers for the whole country. These are  
almost certainly held by upper-to-middle class families, companies  
and governmental entities. (BTW, probably 60K of those computers  
would be desktop machines, tied to a specific location.)

Making some _guesses_ regarding age cohorts, I'll say that 15% of the  
total population is in the target age range for the OLPC - some 270  
thousand children. Let's say that 30% of these children are in the  
target socioeconomic demographic for the OLPC. That means 81K laptops.

I'm playing fast and loose with numbers here, but if each of the  
candidate children were to get a laptop, the laptops would suddenly  
become the 'platform for the rest of Botswana'. As I mentioned  
earlier, we could reasonably expect that at least four other family  
members and friends would turn to the child's OLPC for computing  
resources at some point during any given year. This is made even more  
likely by the portability of the OLPC laptops; it can be carried to  
where it is needed.

In very short order, the OLPC and the Sugar UI is likely to become  
the only accessible computational option for the world's poor. Not  
just the children, but their families as well. Whatever mistakes are  
made or 'blind spots' are incorporated into the OLPC OS will affect  
an unprecedented number of people in an unprecedented number of  
countries. Making sure it's cheap, stable, rugged and attractive just  
isn't good enough.

It has to be an effective enabler for an entire socioeconomic class.

- Will
Will Parker
wparker at ChannelingDesign.com

"The only people who value your specialist knowledge are the ones who  
already have it." - William Tozier