Open Access Metrics: Use REF2014 to Validate Metrics for REF2020
loet at LEYDESDORFF.NET
Fri Dec 19 03:07:46 EST 2014
What is being proposed is to validate a metric battery so that if it proves to predict the peer rankings (such as they are, warts and all) sufficiently well, then it can replace (or at least supplement) them.
The multiple regression analysis is static: you can fine-tune your parameters for REF2014; but in 2020, not only the parameters, but also the latent dimensions of the system will have changed. Thus, your previous estimate will not match (unless the system would be very conservative; quod non).
Of course, it remain interesting to compare the observed with the expected values, but the difference will not inform you about the validity of your model or the “error” in the peer review (in 2020).
Nevertheless: please, do the exercise! It may be a bit frustrating to have to wait to 2020 for the observations. :(
Fitting the parameters for REF 2014 may not be sufficiently interesting in itself.
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