Technology forecasting and patent strategy of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies

[Eugene Garfield]

Technology forecasting and patent strategy of hydrogen energy and fuel cell 
technologies

Author(s): Chen, YH (Chen, Yu-Heng); Chen, CY (Chen, Chia-Yon); Lee, SC 
(Lee, Shun-Chung)
Source: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYDROGEN ENERGY  Volume: 36  Issue: 
12  Pages: 6957-6969  DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2011.03.063  Published: JUN 
2011  

Abstract: This study presents the technological S-curves that integrates the 
Bibliometric and patent analysis into the Logistic growth curve model for 
hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies and identifies the optimal patent 
strategy for the fuel cell industry, including PEMFC, SOFC, and DMFC/DAFC. 
Empirical analysis is via an expert survey and Co-word analysis using the United 
States Patent and Trademark Office database to obtain useful data. Analytical 
results demonstrate that the S-curves is a highly effective means of 
quantifying how technology forecasting of cumulative publication patent 
number. Analytical results also indicate that technologies for generating and 
storing hydrogen have not yet reached technological maturity; thus, additional 
R&D funding is needed to accelerate the development of hydrogen technology. 
Conversely, fuel cell technologies have reached technological maturity, and 
related patent strategies include freedom to operate, licensing, and niche 
inventions. The proposed model can be applied to all high-technology cases, 
and particularly to new clean technologies. The study concludes by outlining 
the limitations of the proposed model and directions for further research. 
Copyright (C) 2011, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier 
Ltd. All rights reserved.

Language: English
Document Type: Article
Author Keywords: S-Curves; Hydrogen energy; Logistic growth curve; Patent 
strategy; Fuel cell
KeyWords Plus: DIFFUSION; MODEL; GASIFICATION; SUBSTITUTION; 
DATABASES; INDUSTRY; EXAMPLE; GROWTH

Addresses: [Chen, YH; Chen, CY; Lee, SC] Natl Cheng Kung Univ, Dept 
Resources Engn, Tainan 701, Taiwan
Reprint Address: Lee, SC (reprint author), Natl Cheng Kung Univ, Dept 
Resources Engn, 1 Univ Rd, Tainan 701, Taiwan

E-mail Address: luegg100 at gmail.com, mjchen at mail.ncku.edu.tw, 
n4895102 at mail.ncku.edu.tw
ISSN: 0360-3199
URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319911006537