Hyett, M (Hyett, Matthew); Parker, G (Parker, Gordon) Can the highly cited psychiatric paper be predicted early? AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY, 43 (2): 173-176 2009

[Eugene Garfield]

E-mail Address: m.hyett at unsw.edu.au 

Author(s): Hyett, M (Hyett, Matthew); Parker, G (Parker, Gordon) 

Title: Can the highly cited psychiatric paper be predicted early? 

Source: AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY, 43 (2): 173-176 
2009 

Language: English 

Document Type: Article 

Author Keywords: Citations; comparative study; forecasting; psychiatry 
journals 

KeyWords Plus: IMPACT 

Abstract: Objective: Predicting the impact of any research article on its 
scientific discipline is often viewed as requiring the passage of time. A 
recent BMJ article, however, reported that an article's citation rate at 2 
years could be predicted by data available 3 weeks following publication. 
The question remains as to whether establishing a citation trajectory at 
an early stage holds for psychiatric publications, given the low 
percentage of psychiatric articles in their analysis. The aim of the 
current article was to critically examine this area of the scientific 
literature.
Method: Data were collected from the Institute for Scientific Information 
on scientific papers published in January/February 2006, in the top 30 
psychiatric journals. Analyses examined the comparative impact of early 
citation numbers and several predictors identified in the BMJ article.
Results: Only two BMJ variables (a larger number of references per article 
and larger number of authors) predicted higher citations at 2 years in the 
principal analysis. Citation counts at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months predicted 
citations at 2 years, with increasing success over time, and such citation 
counts were distinctly superior to the quantified variables in the 
previous study.
Conclusions: It appears doubtful that data available at 3 weeks after 
publication for psychiatric articles are useful in predicting citation 
counts at 2 years. The trajectory of citation counts for a psychiatric 
article becomes more apparent with time. 

Addresses: [Hyett, Matthew] Univ New S Wales, Sch Psychiat, Sydney, NSW, 
Australia; Prince Wales Hosp, Black Dog Inst, Randwick, NSW 2031, 
Australia 

Reprint Address: Hyett, M, Univ New S Wales, Sch Psychiat, Sydney, NSW, 
Australia. 

E-mail Address: m.hyett at unsw.edu.au 

Funding Acknowledgement:  
Funding Agency Grant Number 
National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia  510135  
NSW Department of Health    
 
Financial support for the present study was provided by grants from the 
National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (510135) and NSW 
Department of Health. Our thanks to Kerrie Eyers for assistance.
 
Cited Reference Count: 9 

Times Cited: 0 

Publisher: INFORMA HEALTHCARE 

Publisher Address: 52 VANDERBILT AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10017 USA 

ISSN: 0004-8674 

29-char Source Abbrev.: AUST N Z J PSYCHIAT 

ISO Source Abbrev.: Aust. N. Z. J. Psych. 

Source Item Page Count: 4 

Subject Category: Psychiatry 

ISI Document Delivery No.: 395EV 

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