Ketcham, CM (Ketcham, Catherine M.) Predicting impact factor one year in advance LABORATORY INVESTIGATION, 87 (6): 520-526 JUN 2007

[Eugene Garfield]

E-mail Address: ketcham at pathology.ufl.edu 

Author(s): Ketcham, CM (Ketcham, Catherine M.) 

Title: Predicting impact factor one year in advance 

Source: LABORATORY INVESTIGATION, 87 (6): 520-526 JUN 2007 

Language: English
 
Document Type: Article 

Author Keywords: impact factor; pathology; citations; Thomson ISI; Web of 
Science 

Keywords Plus: PRESTIGE 

Abstract: The first impact factor (IF) to reflect the sole efforts of a 
new editorial team occurs 4 years into what is usually a 5-year 
editorship, owing to the lag times of: paper accrual and publication, 
accumulation of citations in derivative literature, and compiling of such 
citations by the Thomson ISI Web of Knowledge(SM) service. Through weekly 
collection of citation data from the Web of Science (R) over the past 2 
years, we now demonstrate that the evolution of IF can be tracked weekly 
over the course of a calendar year, enabling prediction of the next year's 
IF beginning at the middle of the previous year. The methodology used to 
track the developing IF for Lab Invest is presented in this study and a 
prediction made for the 2006 IF, along with IF predictions for other 
general pathology journals (American Journal of Pathology, Journal of 
Pathology, Modern Pathology, American Journal of Surgical Pathology, and 
Human Pathology). Despite the fact that the 2006 IF for Lab Invest will 
not be issued until June 2007, it became apparent as early as July 2006 
that the Lab Invest IF would be greatly improved over 2004 and 2005 by a 
predicted 0.5 units. However, as important as IF can be to a journal, it 
is vital not to let IF considerations influence every aspect of the 
editors' decisions. Rather, the significance of early prediction lies in 
earlier validation of editorial policies for journal management as a 
whole, and reassurance that the philosophy for journal operations is on 
track. 

Addresses: Univ Florida, Coll Med, Dept Pathol Immunol & Lab Med, 
Gainesville, FL 32610 USA 

Reprint Address: Ketcham, CM, Univ Florida, Coll Med, Dept Pathol Immunol 
& Lab Med, POB 100275,1600 SW Archer Rd, Gainesville, FL 32610 USA. 

E-mail Address: ketcham at pathology.ufl.edu 

Cited Reference Count: 23 

Times Cited: 2 

Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP 

Publisher Address: 75 VARICK STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK, NY 10013-1917 
USA 

ISSN: 0023-6837 

29-char Source Abbrev.: LAB INVEST 

ISO Source Abbrev.: Lab. Invest. 

Source Item Page Count: 7 

Subject Category: Medicine, Research & Experimental; Pathology 

ISI Document Delivery No.: 168ZA 

NATURE 435 : 1003 2005 

*PLOS MED ED
PLOS MED 3 : E291 2006 

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