Young, NS (Young, Neal S.); Ioannidis, JPA (Ioannidis, John P. A.); Al-Ubaydi, O (Al-Ubaydi, Omar) Why Current Publication Practices May Distort Science PLOS MEDICINE, 5 (10): 1418-1422 OCT 2008

[Eugene Garfield]

E-mail Address: youngns at mail.nih.gov 

URL: http://medicine.plosjournals.org/archive/1549-
1676/5/10/pdf/10.1371_journal.pmed.0050201-S.pdf

Author(s): Young, NS (Young, Neal S.); Ioannidis, JPA (Ioannidis, John P. 
A.); Al-Ubaydi, O (Al-Ubaydi, Omar) 

Title: Why Current Publication Practices May Distort Science 

Source: PLOS MEDICINE, 5 (10): 1418-1422 OCT 2008 

Language: English 

Document Type: Editorial Material 

Keywords Plus: CLINICAL-RESEARCH; IMPACT FACTOR; WINNERS CURSE; PUBLISHED 
RESEARCH; RANDOMIZED-TRIALS; MEDICAL JOURNALS; BIAS; TRANSLATION; 
AUCTIONS; BEHAVIOR 

Abstract: The current system of publication in biomedical research 
provides a distorted view of the reality of scientific data that are 
generated in the laboratory and clinic. This system can be studied by 
applying principles from the field of economics. The "winner's curse," a 
more general statement of publication bias, suggests that the small 
proportion of results chosen for publication are unrepresentative of 
scientists' repeated samplings of the real world. The self-correcting 
mechanism in science is retarded by the extreme imbalance between the 
abundance of supply (the output of basic science laboratories and clinical 
investigations) and the increasingly limited venues for publication 
(journals with sufficiently high impact). This system would be expected 
intrinsically to lead to the misallocation of resources. The scarcity of 
available outlets is artificial, based on the costs of printing in an 
electronic age and a belief that selectivity is equivalent to quality. 
Science is subject to great uncertainty: we cannot be confident now which 
efforts will ultimately yield worthwhile achievements. However, the 
current system abdicates to a small number of intermediates an 
authoritative prescience to anticipate a highly unpredictable future. In 
considering society's expectations and our own goals as scientists, we 
believe that there is a moral imperative to reconsider how scientific data 
are judged and disseminated. 

Addresses: [Young, Neal S.] NHLBI, Hematol Branch, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 
USA; [Ioannidis, John P. A.] Univ Ioannina, Sch Med, Dept Hyg & Epidemiol, 
GR-45110 Ioannina, Greece; [Ioannidis, John P. A.] Fdn Res & Technol 
Hellas, Ioannina, Greece; [Ioannidis, John P. A.] Tufts Univ, Sch Med, 
Dept Med, Boston, MA 02111 USA; [Al-Ubaydi, Omar] George Mason Univ, Dept 
Econ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; [Al-Ubaydi, Omar] George Mason Univ, Mercatus 
Ctr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA 

Reprint Address: Young, NS, NHLBI, Hematol Branch, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 
USA. 

E-mail Address: youngns at mail.nih.gov 

Cited Reference Count: 55 

Times Cited: 0 

Publisher: PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE 

Publisher Address: 185 BERRY ST, STE 1300, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94107 USA 

ISSN: 1549-1277 

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050201 

29-char Source Abbrev.: PLOS MED 

ISO Source Abbrev.: PLos Med. 

Source Item Page Count: 5 

Subject Category: Medicine, General & Internal 

ISI Document Delivery No.: 365QY 

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