Fok D, Franses PH , "Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications " JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS 139 (2): 376-390 AUG 2007

[Eugene Garfield]

E-mail Addresses: P.H. Franses : franses at few.eur.nl 

Title: Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications 

Author(s): Fok D (Fok, Dennis), Franses PH (Franses, Philip Hans) 

Source: JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS 139 (2): 376-390 AUG 2007 

Document Type: Article 
Language: English 
Cited References: 16      Times Cited: 0          

Abstract: This paper illustrates that salient features of a panel of time 
series of annual citations can be captured by a Bass type diffusion model. 
We put forward an extended version of this diffusion model, where we 
consider the relation between key characteristics of the diffusion process 
and features of the articles. More specifically, parameters measuring 
citations' ceiling and the timing of peak citations are correlated with 
specific features of the articles like the number of pages and the number 
of authors. Our approach amounts to a multi-level non-linear regression for 
a panel of time series. We illustrate our model for citations to articles 
that were published in Econometrica and the Journal of Econometrics. 
Amongst other things, we find that more references lead to more citations 
and that for the Journal of Econometrics peak citations of more recent 
articles tend to occur later.(c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 

Addresses: Franses PH (reprint author), Erasmus Univ, Inst Econometr, POB 
1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands
Erasmus Univ, Inst Econometr, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands

E-mail Addresses: franses at few.eur.nl 

Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA, PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND 

Subject Category: Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; 
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods 
IDS Number: 183NV 
ISSN: 0304-4076 

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