No subject

[Eugene Garfield]

 Research Article

Topological analysis of citation networks to discover the future core
articles

Naoki Shibata, Yuya Kajikawa, Katsumori Matsushima

Institute of Engineering Innovation, School of Engineering, University
of Tokyo, 2-11-16 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

email: Naoki Shibata (shibata at biz-model.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
<mailto:shibata at biz-model.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp> ) Yuya Kajikawa (
kaji at biz-model.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp <mailto:kaji at biz-model.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp> )
Katsumori Matsushima (matsushima at iijmio-mail.jp
<mailto:matsushima at iijmio-mail.jp> )

 

Index Terms

 

citation analysis * citation networks * forecasting * impact factor *
domain knowledge

 

Abstract

 

In this article, we investigated the factors determining the capability
of academic articles to be cited in the future using a topological
analysis of citation networks. The basic idea is that articles that will
have many citations were in a  similar  position topologically in the
past. To validate this hypothesis, we investigated the correlation
between future times cited and three measures of centrality: clustering
centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality. We also
analyzed the effect of aging as well as of self-correlation of times
cited. Case studies were performed in the two following recent
representative innovations: Gallium Nitride and Complex Networks. The
results suggest that times cited is the main factor in explaining the
near future times cited, and betweenness centrality is correlated with
the distant future times cited. The effect of topological position on
the capability to be cited is influenced by the migrating phenomenon in
which the activated center of research shifts from an existing domain to
a new emerging domain.

________________________________

Received: 16 January 2006; Revised: 9 April 2006; Accepted: 21 April
2006 

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)


10.1002/asi.20529  About DOI
<http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/doiinfo.html> 

 

 

Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
<http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/76501873> 

  <http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/rss/journal/76501873>  

Volume Issue 6 , Pages 872 - 882

Published Online: 2 Mar 2007

Copyright (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company

 

 

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