Burrell QL. "Predicting future citation behavior" JASIST 54(5):372-378 March 2003.

[Quentin L. Burrell]

Adam

Thanks for the message. As I don't want to send an attachment to the list,
if you (or anyone else!) would like an e-version please contact me directly
at
q.burrell at ibs.ac.im
or
quentinburrell at manx.net

(Ow a snail version will crawl to you on Friday!)

Quentin

-----Original Message-----
From: ASIS&T Special Interest Group on Metrics
[mailto:SIGMETRICS at LISTSERV.UTK.EDU]On Behalf Of Adam Bartkowski
Sent: 02 April 2003 07:48
To: SIGMETRICS at LISTSERV.UTK.EDU
Subject: Re: [SIGMETRICS] Burrell QL. "Predicting future citation behavior"
JASIST 54(5):372-378 March 2003.


Dear Dr. Burrell,

the title and abstract of your paper are really very interesting. I
appreciate very much a copy of the paper, via e- or snail-mail.

My snail-address:
Adam Bartkowski
PATON/TU Ilmenau
PF 100565
98694 Ilmenau
Germany

Thank you in advance,
Adam Bartkowski

PS. I have tried to send a mail direct to the address of Mr. Burrell given
below in the message, however, the mail couldn't reach the address because
of "too many hops". Is this address correct?

----- Original Message -----
From: "Eugene Garfield" <garfield at CODEX.CIS.UPENN.EDU>
To: <SIGMETRICS at LISTSERV.UTK.EDU>
Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2003 11:01 PM
Subject: [SIGMETRICS] Burrell QL. "Predicting future citation behavior"
JASIST 54(5):372-378 March 2003.


> Quentin L. Burrell : q.burrell at ibs.ac.im
>
>
> Title   Predicting future citation behavior
> Author  Burrell QL
> Journal JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION
>         SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 54 (5): 372-378 MAR 2003
>
>  Document type: Article   Language: English
>  Cited References: 24     Times Cited: 0
>
>
> Abstract:
> In this article we further develop the theory for a stochastic model for
the
> citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future
> citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. More precisely, we
> investigate the conditional distribution -and its mean -of the number of
> citations to a paper after time t, given the number of citations it has
> received up to time t. In an important parametric case it is shown that
the
> expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current
> number, this being interpretable as an example of a success-breeds-success
> phenomenon.
>
> KeyWords Plus:
> LIBRARY CIRCULATION MODEL, SUCCESS-BREEDS-SUCCESS, STOCHASTIC-MODEL,
MARKOV
>
> Addresses:
> Burrell QL, Isle Man Int Business Sch, Nunnery,Old Castletown Rd, Douglas
> IM2 1QB, Man, England
> Isle Man Int Business Sch, Douglas IM2 1QB, Man, England
>
> Publisher:
> JOHN WILEY & SONS INC, HOBOKEN
>
> IDS Number:
> 649ZR
>
> ISSN:
> 1532-2882
>
>
>
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1984
>  BURRELL QL            INFORMETRICS 87 88 S                    43
1988
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1990
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1986
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>  BURRELL QL            J ROYAL STAT SOC A           154       439
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>  CANE VR               B I MATH                      15       183
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>  CANE VR               J APPL PROBAB                 14       475
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>  GLANZEL W             INFORM PROCESS MANAG          31        69
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>  GLANZEL W             SCIENTOMETRICS                40       481
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>  GRIMMETT GR           PROBABILITY RANDOM P
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>  HUBER JC              J AM SOC INFORM SCI           49       471
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>  MORSE PM              LIB EFFECTIVENESS SY
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>  PARZEN E              STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
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>  PRICE DD              J ASIS                        27       293
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>  TAGUE J               J AM SOC INFORM SCI           32       280
1981
>  TAGUE J               J DOC                         43       212
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>  TUCKWELL HC           ELEMENTARY APPL PROB
1995
>