[Sigia-l] simulations and scenarios

[Listera]

"christina wodtke" wrote:

> Sources of Power talks about mental simulation-- in which a person is faced
> with a problem and quickly runs a set of potential solutions and their
> effects through his or her head. When a solution that looks likely to work
> is uncovered, the person then acts... Satificing, though, not satisfying.
> Not looking for the best design necessarily. Just looking for the one that
> works.

For an interesting angle to the issue of simulating, try this from Wired
magazine, all the way back to 1994:

Conspiracy of Heretics
<http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.11/gbn_pr.html>

Considered a cabal by some, Global Business Network (GBN) founded by Stewart
Brand and Jay Ogilvy do "scenario planning" (methodical thinking of the
unthinkable) to tackle thorny political, business, technological, etc
problems. The idea is to create realistic scenarios, thus test notions and
(the interesting part) expect to turn those scenarios into realities. In
other words, if you can "realistically" draw a scenario then the feedback
forces come into play to make what has been shown to be "realistically"
possible/likely into reality.

Here's the current site of GBN:
<http://www.gbn.org>

Best,

Ziya