[Asis-l] ISCRAM Threat Delphi

[Murray Turoff]

If your working in Emergency Management Information Systems you might
find this report of interest
 The ISCRAM Future Threat Delphi: Nostradamus Revisited
 published by turoff <http://www.iscramlive.org/portal/user/112> on Sun,
05/13/2012 - 17:03

During a 5 month period from November 2011 to March 2012, 36 professionals
participated in an exploratory two-round Delphi to develop a list of 86
threats in 11 categories important for the next decade which they felt were
not now receiving adequate planning or adequate development of mitigation
options.  This involved 14 academics studying Emergency Preparedness and
Management, eight practitioners in Emergency Management, and 14
professionals in other related fields.  A list of those involved is
provided, excluding those participants who requested anonymity.

The second round included a rating of all the threats developed on the
first round.  As a result, of the rating, a significant number of threats
were classified as having a strong consensus for being extremely or very
important.  Another significant number of threats were identified as
requiring further investigation to remove possible uncertainties and
disagreements among the participants.  There was, surprisingly, only one
item in all the threats for which there was a statistical significant
difference in the way the EM practitioners and the other two categories of
participants voted.  A follow on effort is being planned which will involve
open online discussions to explore and expand on this initial effort.

Murray Turoff and Linda Plotnick
Category:
Publications <http://www.iscramlive.org/portal/category-publications>


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iscramDelphiFinal051012.pdf<http://www.iscramlive.org/portal/sites/default/files/iscramDelphiFinal051012.pdf>247.1
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*Distinguished Professor Emeritus
Information Systems, NJIT
homepage: http://is.njit.edu/turoff
*
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